WTA: Three Wimbledon Dark Horses Everyone’s Ignoring

Image credits: Toby Melville / Reuters / Get Licensing Rights from Reuters

I grew up in a country where Cricket rules the heart of over a billion people. As a Tennis fan, my sport never got enough coverage or celebrations. Growing up, Tennis was barely a minnow for broadcasting rights in India.

That’s probably why when a Grand Slam rolls around, I notice the underdogs first. Who is flying under the radar? Who will be the surprise semi finalist? These storylines dominate my head.

This year as I restart Tennis writing, that’s the first topic I decided to write about.

So, here are your three Wimbledon dark horses on the Women’s side who everyone is ignoring.

Anna Kalinskaya

I am very positive about Anna Kalinskaya. The Sinner effect and her own hard work is clearly showing off.

Anna won a WTA 125 event (similar to Challengers) in Midland (US) to end her 2023 season and then carried on that momentum into 2024.

Here’s how her 2024 has looked so far:

1. Anna went from qualifiers to R16 (three wins) at Adelaide 500 event
2. She won 4 matches in the Australian Open, reaching her first grand slam QFs (lost to eventual finalist Zheng).
3. She then stunned Gauff in Dubai QFs
4. She snapped World №1 Swiatek’s streak in Dubai semis
5. She then lost to Paolini in a tough 3 setter; Paolini won 4–6, 7–5, 7–5. FUN FACT: In Dubai, Anna went from Qualifiers (2 matches won) all the way to the finals (4 more matches won) — while beating two top 5 players in the world and snapping World №1’s win streak along the way — that’s a great confidence booster for any player!
6. In Indian Wells, Miami, and across the entire Clay season, she couldn’t reach QFs. In Miami, she gave a walkover to Sakkari in R4.
7. In the Grass season, she reached the finals in Berlin 500 event (most players usually play 1 or 2 events before Wimbledon) where she reached finals. She did lose the Berlin final after holding 5 match points against Pegula, but it’s important to note the word “AFTER” and the fact that Pegula is top 5 talent returning fresh after an injury break.

Now, Anna sits comfortably inside top 20 in the world. But does her good season mean she can disrupt draws and crush dreams at Wimbledon?

Let’s look at her Wimbledon 2024 draw and find out:

1. Anna is seeded 17th at Wimbledon 2024.
2. Her first round opponent is Panna Udvardy of Hungary
3. She has a relatively tough draw for her level. Here are her highest seed projected opponents until SF: R3: Samsonova (15), R4: Rybakina (4), QF: Pegula (5), SF: Swiatek (1).

Despite being in a such a STACKED draw, I do believe Anna has a credible chance of reaching the semis. Here’s why:

1. Swiatek’s path to final is full of “upset mines”, i.e., players like defending champion Vondrousova, Collins, Kenin (in the first round!), Putinseva, and Kerber.
2. Pegula’s path to final contains Jabeur, Svitolina, and Boulter.
3. Rybakina has Fernandez and Alycia Parks in her path to final and both are recent title winners on grass.
4. Samsonova has to potentially battle unseeded but dangerous and regularly-shows-up-in-slams Elina Avanesyan in her R2.

Why I could be wrong: While hard courts seem to be Anna’s forte, she struggled massively throughout the clay season. On the Grass in Berlin 500, she won 2 matches in three sets and 2 other matches by retirement, while ultimately losing to Pegula in thrilling 3 setter after losing 5 match points. Replicating hard court success on Grass may still an unsolved puzzle for Anna.

Jasmine Paolini

Paolini punctuates her incredible movement and agility across the baseline with heavy loopy forehands. Jasmine reached three finals at the WTA 250 level in 2023. That and overall solid, consistent results across the season earned her first round BYEs in several WTA 500 and WTA 100 tournaments in 2024. One great advantage for a higher ranking for Jasmine is that she can balance her season between the tour events with points and national duty events without points like Billie Jean King (Fed) Cup, United Cup, and the Olympics.

Her biggest results in 2024 have been winning the Dubai 500 event and reaching her first grand slam finals, at the Roland Garros.

Apart from these two tournaments, she also reached 4th round at the Australian Open in January and QFs at Stuttgart WTA 500.

On the doubles court, Jasmine and her doubles partner (Italian veteran) Sara Errani won three titles in 2024 — one each at WTA 250, 500, and 1000 levels. They also almost won the Roland Garros title but stumbled at the final hurdle.

So what are Jasmine’s prospects for Wimbledon? Let’s analyze her path to semis:

• Jasmine enters the draw seeded 7th at Wimbledon 2024.
• Her first round opponent is the Spaniard Sara Sorribes Tormo.
• While Jasmine’s draw is tough, odds are tilted in her favor because of her 7th seeding. Here are her highest seed projected opponents until SF: R3: Noskova (26), R4: Keys (12), QF: Gauff (2), SF: Sabalenka (3).

While Jasmine has had a rock solid season and is projected to have a bumper 2024, her path to her first Grand Slam (and her first Wimbledon) title is complicated by the following factors:

1. Noskova in R3 is a major threat on a fast surface — she is a hard hitter, has proven resilience in big matches, and has beaten World №1 Iga Swiatek before. Likewise, resurgent Bianca Andreescu also looms large as a possible R3 opponent for Jasmine.
2. Keys, and to a lesser extent, Marta Kostyuk could well make her life difficult in R4. Honorable mention to American Peyton Stearns who has gained decent momentum this season with great results. If Peyton shows up and plays her high level against Jasmine, the Italian could be in for a surprisingly tough battle.
3. Gauff, Azarenka, Navarro, Pliskova, and Osaka all have ability and form on their side to stop Jasmine in QFs.
4. Kasatkina and Raducanu both are in great form, with Kasatkina winning a her first title on Grass and Raducanu beating Pegula. Both could end Jasmine’s dream of a first Grand Slam in SF if they happen to reach the semis.

Katie Boulter

Katie has been knocking on the door of global Tennis stardom for several months now. Despite the constant media attention on her relationship with Australian no. 1 Alex de Minaur, she rose out of the shadow in the past few months.

Though, she won only one title in the entire season in 2023, she has earned 2 titles already in the first half of 2024. She won San Diego 500 at the end of February 2024 and then Nottingham 250 at the start of Grass season in June (this one was repeat of last year).

Katie Boulter is quickly becoming Britain’s grass court specialist; she holds a 7–2 W/L record in the 2024 Grass season and one of those two losses was a retirement.

But at Grand Slams, she has never gone beyond 3rd round. Can she finally rise up to the hopes of being a home favorite?

Let’s look at her 2024 draws and find out:

• Katie enters the draw seeded 32nd at Wimbledon 2024.
• Her first round opponent is the German Tatijana Maria (who was a semifinalist here in 2022).
• Here are her highest seed projected opponents until SF: R3: Pegula (5), R4: Jabeur (10), QF: Rybakina (4), SF: Swiatek (1)

Katie’s draw is tough but she’s already in a great form on Grass and she’ll be home favorite against these players. Her first Grand Slam does have significant roadblocks:

• Pegula in R3 loves to end the point quick but is not averse to rallying. She has come back from missing the clay season due to injury and has already won a title on Grass. Boulter v Pegula, if it happens, will be a very entertaining encounter with both players seeking to prove a point.
• In R4, she has a potential face-off against another crowd favorite in Ons Jabeur who is now a two-time finalist. Elina Svitolina could also make her life difficult at this stage.
• Rybakina, Samsonova, Kalinskaya, and Fernandez — one of these could be in her QF. But if goes through the draw and reaches QF, it’s likely the home support will carry her through.
• Semis seems a distant possibility for Katie but she’d have already set some records just by reaching the Semis. Having said that, Swiatek’s path to final is full of “upset mines”, i.e., players like defending champion Vondrousova, Collins, Kenin (in the first round!), Putinseva, and Kerber.

Who do you think can make a big splash during Wimbledon 2024?

Author’s Note: Thanks for reading till the end. Feel free to share this with your friends to discuss and debate. And if you wanna hire me for Tennis features writing (especially WTA features), you can reach me at navin.vocabartist@gmail.com or reach me at LinkedIn.